GDP, Inflation, and Unemployment

Topic 

GDP, Inflation, and Unemployment

Instructions 

  • Go to the above website and download the last 5 years of data for the above three statistics.
  • You will have to decide which specific data series you use for each statistic. Be sure to specifically state what data you are using (nominal? Seasonally adjusted? Etc.)
  • Do an analysis for each statistic- which direction is it heading? How does the current statistic compare to the past?
    • You will need to include a plot for each statistic- the video for this paper will show you how to do this in Excel. Be sure to refer to your plots in your writing.
    • For GDP, use real GDP per capita so that you can calculate, report, and comment on the growth rate.
    • For unemployment, I would like you to compare the unemployment rate for one specific demographic as well (gender, race, age, education, etc.)
  • Do the experts believe the above trends will continue? Cite at least 3 sources (online newspaper reports are fine, if it is from a reputable source (e.g. the New York Times, Washington Post, etc.).  I do not care which style you use to include your references, just keep it consistent.
  • Finally, include a plot of the Phillips curve for the past 5 years. Does it show any kind of relationship?  You can put this part in either the inflation or unemployment section.
  • You should have an introduction paragraph, a separate section for each statistic, and a conclusion paragraph.

Answer Preview 

Real GDP Per Capita

The data is based on quarterly measures. According to the statistics provided in FRED, the U. S annual Real GDP came in at 2.2 percent (rounded off from 2.17%) in the last quarter of 2018 which was below the real GDP in the previous quarter period at 3.4 percent. With a per capita adjustment, the GDP data series is lower at 1.50 percent. This percent compares with the US market expectations of 2.4 percent. The U.S real GDP is expected to further slow to 2.1 percent in 2019 from 2.2 percent in 2018. It is also likely to slow further to 1.9 percent and 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2021 respectively. The expected slowdown in 2019 and the subsequent years are attributed to the trade war effects due to the economic policies of Trump administration (Focus Economics, 2019). The five year GDP percentages indicate that the U.S economic growth has been slowing dramatically since the last recession period.

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